Plynárenstvo 2035: Hľadanie robustných metód znižovania finančných rizík a neistoty
Gas Industry 2035: Search for robust methods in decreasing financial risk and uncertainty
Ekonomika a spoločnosť, Volume 26, Number 2/2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24040/eas.2025.26.2.140-156
Odporúčaná forma citácie článku:
Rajtóková, M. & Brodrechtová, Y. (2025). Plynárenstvo 2035: Hľadanie robustných metód znižovania finančných rizík a neistoty. Ekonomika a spoločnosť, 26 (2), 140-156. https://doi.org/10.24040/eas.2025.26.2.140-156
Recommended form for quotation of the article:
Rajtóková, M. & Brodrechtová, Y. (2025). Gas Industry 2035: Search for robust methods in decreasing financial risk and uncertainty. Journal of Economics and Social Research, 26 (2), 140-156. https://doi.org/10.24040/eas.2025.26.2.140-156
ABSTRACT
This study explores the use of scenario planning for strategic decision-making and financial risk management in the Slovak gas industry, amid high uncertainty. The primary objectives were to identify key future-shaping factors, develop alternative future scenarios, and assess the related financial risks, as well as identify robust methods for managing these risks. The case study focuses on SPP, a.s., employing a combination of methodologies. Specifically, PESTLE analysis and expert interviews were used to identify key factors, while morphological and cluster analysis, supported by Scenario ManagerTM software, were applied to develop future scenarios. For each of the four future scenarios with ten-year horizon, potential financial risks and uncertainties impacting SPP, a.s. were identified, along with proposed methods for managing these risks. The comparison across all four scenarios revealed that the most significant future risks included financial risks related to liquidity and stability, business risks related to gas procurement and market competition, and regulatory risks stemming from changes in legislation and energy policy. The results indicate that portfolio diversification is a robust risk management method that remains effective across different future scenarios. The main conclusion is that scenario planning, with diversification as a core strategy, is crucial for resilience. Other proposed strategies include conservative financial management and flexibility in the business models. The key conclusion is that scenario planning, in comparison to currently applied risk management methods in SPP, a.s., is crucial for ensuring resilience in the face of long-term uncertainties.
Key words: financial risk management, scenario planning. diversification, gas sector.